These trends are encouraging but there are still plenty of challenges. While Bailey may be optimistic, inflation remains higher than the Bank of England’s targets and, with the UK economy shrinking by 0.3% in October-December 2023 and putting the country into a technical recession3, this could make it more difficult to balance the economic books.
Interest rates are also significantly higher than in the recent past, which can create a headache for businesses refinancing existing debt.
These challenges have pushed corporate insolvencies up. In February 2024, on the back of Q4 2023 figures showing 7,183 UK insolvencies, the Centre for Economics and Business Research4 revised its forecast for 2024 from 28,000 to 33,000. This level of corporate insolvencies is more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic and 75% up on pre-pandemic levels, when the average was 4,100.
Geopolitical issues are also affecting many UK businesses. The Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars are disrupting supply chains but also raising concerns regarding ESG issues if a business is still active in the affected areas.
On top of this, it’s a record year for elections around the world. This can create further uncertainty and, with a new UK government inheriting a tough economy, directors and officers must be prepared for policy changes that could affect their business.